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Stalk Your User (Web Techniques, June 2001)
"After all, sitting down with users and watching them try to accomplish tasks with the product can be incredibly valuable. However, usability testing assumes that there's something to test%u2014either a prototype or final version of a product that's on the path to being launched. But how do you know what to build in the first place?
Contextual Design by Beyer and Holtzblatt, p. 70, addresses this question effectively. It's a bit much to rekey here, but I recommend the book in its entirety.
Primarily: "Define the intent people are trying to achieve. Gather data on people achieving their intent with current data...Look for problems and places where the lack of tools keeps them from trying to achieve their real intent. Use metaphors to think about what may be important in the new work domain."